All I Want For Christmas, Is Better Pricing
In this article, lets revisit:
The state of the bourbon market
Who is celebrating
Who is mourning
The hope for the short and long term, future
Let's talk about it
Deflation and De-escalation. Bourbon Bureaucrats Get a Reality Check.
aterial changes in the bourbon market have begun to take effect. From Brown-Forman's 12% layoffs, to Jim Beam's "re-evaluation" production needs. From MGP's 40% reduction in distilling volume, to Green River Distilling's job cuts of 25%. Distilleries have been rolling in it for the last 20+ years, and frankly, things have gotten out of hand.
A vicious circle has driven the bourbon boom, for the last couple of decades.
Increasing Demand >> Increasing Prices
Increasing Prices >> Increasing Perception of Value\Quality
Increasing Perception of Value\Quality >> Increasing FOMO
Increasing FOMO >> Increasing Demand
And Repeat.
istilleries and NDPs alike, have sat back, watched, and discussed these very things in their board meetings. While many distilleries will pretend that they hate the secondary market...they secretly love it. They love the hype, free marketing, and "legend" status that a bottle can acquire, in the digital era where anything can go viral, at any time, by increasing visibility and limiting availability.
Some distilleries love it more than others, and secondary values and hype have become a key data point in driving/deciding their SRPs. Some whiskeys from certain heritage distilleries have been hitting store shelves at SRPs that these distilleries would never have dreamed of being able to charge for them. But, getting in while the getting is good, has long been viewed as good practice. "If they will pay 3x this, we are stupid to leave all of that money on the table" (hence $250 SRP, 13-15 year bourbon)
Long Overdue Correction
he vicious circle has started to reverse back in the other direction. Bourbon supply is at an all time high, but bourbon prices, even as recently as 2024, were still commanding prices that didn't reflect it. Prices have to adjust, and are adjusting. It is part of the natural progression of supply and demand.
The circle that we are now in is:
High Prices > Buyer Fatigue and Decreasing Demand
Decreasing Demand > Decreasing FOMO
Decreasing FOMO > Decreasing Perception of Value
Decreasing Perception of Value > Decreasing Prices
But... Decreasing Prices > Increasing Demand..
Who Is Celebrating?
his cycle is not the "end of bourbon." Bourbon has not changed, and bourbon drinkers who authentically love bourbon, should be celebrating this market correction. The days of reckoning for distilleries that have tried to wring every dime out of consumers that they possibly can, are well on their way, with more to come.
Distilleries are looking at quarterly numbers, and realizing that it might be time to snap back to reality on their pricing, supply, and quality of the whiskey that is going into their bottles. Just slapping "limited" or "exclusive" on literally every bottle that you release, isn't going to cut it anymore.
Most bourbon drinkers are pretty tired of a seemingly limitless supply of "limited" offerings. Much like when this point was made in our previous article regarding thousands of group Barrel Picks.
For the true bourbon enthusiast, who buys bottles to enjoy them...this is amazing news. We are long past due for the market to correct, and BRBNFNDR welcomes the thought of pricing coming back down to reality for our members. As it happens, we will have our eyes closely fixed to the market, ensuring to notify members every time these prices drop lower and lower, and fall into your watch list pricing parameters!
Who Is Mourning?
his is something that we are all aware of, but the bourbon boom was (and still is) a shiny object that caught the eye of thousands of micro venture-capitalists. You know them, as flippers. Bourbon is far from the only industry affected by the flipper mentality. Sneakers, watches, Pokemon cards, really any niche that is seen as collectible, has flippers.
People who have never played Pokemon, don't care about jewelry, and have never had a new sneaker release ever touch their feet. Well, they are still buying, and they are buying to resell, to turn a profit. That is simply part of the economy that anything of collectible value, garners.
Well, the secondary market is becoming less and less lucrative for those that are solely into bourbon, for side money, or a retirement plan. As prices snap back to reality with increasing demand, the margins for flipping are dwindling. Soon, they will dwindle to the point of not being worth the effort, except for extremely rare releases that will never see a supply increase, any time soon. (Michter's 20+, Pappy 15+, ect ect) It might be time for those that planned on this being their long term retirement plan, to start looking elsewhere. This market correction is bad news, for the bottom lines of flippers.
t is also bad news for the distilleries and NDPs that were charging ridiculously high prices for average whiskey, relying on elaborate bottle designs, or releasing limitless "limited" releases. "Limited" after all, (just like "small batch") ...doesn't really mean anything. Everything is limited...the degree to which something is limited, is what matters.
"Small batch" can be 5 barrels...200 barrels....1500 barrels....etc. It means essentially nothing other than "smaller than what we normally do"
Titles, hype-words, elaborate glass, and high volume tactics, will likely have a hard time surviving this "snap back to reality, ope there goes gravity" moment, for bourbon.
Long Term Hope For Bourbon Lovers
n short, without the fluff:
- Distilleries forced to focus on quality for new products, instead of hype, association, and artificial restriction
- Incentive for flipping dwindling, secondary values tanking
- Bourbon availability reaching 20yr high
- Distilleries or NDPs using manipulative tactics, will be forced to either adjust, or lose relevance
- Pricing on barrels dropping, group picks becoming more affordable
There is a lot of good ahead for bourbon drinkers that love good bourbon! Bourbon, and the people who love it for what it is, are here to stay!
Speaking of tracking market trends and pricing... We're excited to announce that we're rolling out The Bourbon Benchmark™ in the latest update of our app. This powerful new feature will help you track the secondary market price of the hottest spirits, giving you the data you need to make informed decisions when those notifications hit. More info to come in our next post!
Have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
Cheers to 2026, bringing better pricing and availability!
